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Welcome
Will you actually reach your goal?
That's the one question a savings calculator can't answer — because the future isn't a straight line. LifeAlpha runs 2,048 simulated versions of your future using the same Quasi-Monte Carlo method quantitative finance desks use, and tells you the honest probability.
Three questions. About sixty seconds. Then you'll have your number.
Step 1 of 2
Three quick numbers
Rough figures are fine — you can refine everything later. Honest beats precise.
A house deposit, retirement, freedom — whatever the number is.
Step 2 of 2
Your probability
--%
across 2,048 Joe-Kuo Sobol QMC paths
LifeAlpha
"The best investment you can make is in yourself and your financial future."
— Warren Buffett
How the engine works
2,048
Sobol paths
14
Modelled variables
Zero
Third-party trackers
Joe-Kuo Sobol Quasi-Monte Carlo with true direction numbers — a low-discrepancy sampling method that converges faster and with less variance than standard Monte Carlo for problems of this kind. Every assumption we use is published openly on our Methodology page.
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Wealth Intelligence
Good morning, James
Your complete financial overview, updated now
No simulation yet — run your first below
Net Worth
--
savings + investments
↑ Growing
Monthly Surplus
--
income minus expenses
available to invest
Goal Probability
--
QMC simulation result
run a simulation
Health Score
--
out of 100 — 5 dimensions
grade: --
🌿
Financial Age
ⓘ
--
Set your age in Settings to unlock
Net worth score--/20
Savings rate score--/20
Investment ratio score--/20
Emergency fund score--/20
QMC probability score--/20
Net worth benchmark sourced from the Federal Reserve 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances. The other four dimensions use general financial-planning guidelines, not age-specific government data.
See full methodology & sources →
Financial age over time
Run more simulations to see your trend
How is this calculated? →
🔥
Daily Streak
ⓘ
0
Day 1 — keep going
Best: 0Total: 0Weekly: 0/7
Today's engagement
30-Day Activity Heatmap
ActiveTodayMissed
Wealth projection
Median, best and worst case paths
10-yr horizon
MedianBestWorst
Financial health score
5-dimension composite index
--
--
/100
At riskExceptional
Goal probability (35%)--
Savings rate (25%)--
Investment ratio (20%)--
Emergency fund (12%)--
Behavioural discipline (8%)--
Financial data snapshot
Live figures from your simulation — auto-populated from Supabase
Metric
Current
Monthly
Annual
Benchmark
Trend
Status
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Net worth timeline
Real history — every simulation snapshot plotted over time
Run simulations over time to build your net worth history
First snapshot recorded — keep simulating to build your timeline
Net worthQMC probability (right axis)
Recent simulations
Name
Goal
Horizon
Probability
Median
Risk
Engine
Date
No simulations yet — run your first simulation
True Joe-Kuo Sobol QMC engine — 21-dimensional low-discrepancy sampling, 2,048 paths, GARCH volatility clustering, income variability, behavioural bias, crash scenarios, tax and real inflation adjustment.
Horizon mode:
Fixed years
Target probability
Simulation inputs
Configure parameters then run the QMC engine
Income & Cash Flow
$8,000
$500$500K
$0
$0$1M
$4,500
$200$200K
3.0%
0%30%
5%
0% stable80% freelance
Wealth & Goals
$25,000
$0$50M
$0
$0$50M
$1,200
$0$200K
$500K
$10K$500M
10 years
1 yr60 yrs
80%
10%80% ★95%
Calculating…
Risk, Behaviour & Economy
Conservative
Moderate
Aggressive
Moderate: balanced growth targeting ~7–9% annual returns. Optimal for 5–15 year wealth building horizons with managed volatility.
5%
0% disciplined60% impulsive
2.5%
0%25%
20%
0%65%
5%
0%40%
No simulation yet
Configure your parameters on the left and run the Joe-Kuo Sobol QMC engine to see your probabilistic wealth forecast
Probability of reaching your goal
--
QMC success probability
--
Run a simulation to see your probability of reaching your financial goal.
2,048 paths--Joe-Kuo Sobol
90th percentile
--
best case
50th percentile
--
median
10th percentile
--
downside
Outcome distribution
2,048 QMC paths · Joe-Kuo Sobol
Below goalAbove goal
Detailed simulation statistics
Statistic
Value
Interpretation
Benchmark
Adviser recommendation
Save this simulation
Name and store your current scenario for later comparison
0/50
60 left
Loaded: --
Sensitivity analysis
ⓘ
Which input most affects your probability — click a row to highlight that slider
Input
Current value
+20% effect
-20% effect
Impact magnitude
Run a simulation first
AI financial analyst
Claude-powered · uses your exact real-time simulation numbers
Chain up to 4 sequential life events. See cumulative QMC impact with an animated SVG timeline.
Choose a preset scenario
Custom scenario
/mo
/mo
Chain events
Add up to 4 sequential life events — engine applies them across your timeline
Select a scenario
Choose a preset or run a chain to see cumulative QMC impact
Scenario impact
vs your current financial trajectory
--
Current pathScenario path
Key impact breakdown
Individual event impact
Safe-to-spend adjustment
Monthly Budgeting
Projects — Expense Management
Recurring & one-off budgets with rollover. Pie chart breakdown. CSV import.
Import projects from CSV
Expected columns: name, category, budget, spent, description. Extra columns are ignored.
0 rows
New spending project
↻ Recurring
⬡ One-off
Reset monthly
Rollover unused
500 characters remaining
Budget breakdown
Click a slice to highlight that project · hover to inspect
By budget
By spent
--
total budget
--%
spent
Spent
Remaining
Spent vs Budgeted
Total Budgeted
--
across all projects
Total Spent
--
this month
Remaining
--
budget left
Budget Efficiency
--
of budget used
Active projects
No projects yet
Add your first spending project to start tracking your monthly budget categories
Archived projects
Future Planning
Future Goal Planner
QMC probability per goal. Goal dependencies with lock overlays. Precise compound FV annuity savings roadmaps.
New future goal
% p.a.
500 characters remaining
Total Goals
0
planned milestones
Total Target
$0
combined amount needed
Monthly Required
$0
to hit all goals on time
Next Goal
--
--
No goals planned yet
Add your first future goal to get a precise QMC-informed savings roadmap with compound growth projections
Intelligence Layer
Financial insights
Personalised analysis, behavioural intelligence, and actionable advice based on your real QMC simulation data
Your biggest lever right now
Run a simulation to reveal your highest-impact change.
This is the single highest-impact change you can make today.
Sensitivity calculated using 512 paths
Spending intelligence — can I spend money today?
Behavioural finance engine
Your current profile
Monthly income--
Monthly expenses--
Monthly investment--
Disposable income--
Emergency fund--
Safe to spend--
Run a simulation first
Configure your parameters
Go to the Simulator tab, enter your income and expenses, and run a simulation to activate spending intelligence.
Emergency fund status
--
of 6-month target covered
Target: 6 × monthly expenses
--
Personalised AI-driven insights
Pro feature
Run a simulation to generate personalised insights based on your real QMC simulation data
Smart contextual alerts
Live monitoring
Alerts appear here based on your spending patterns and financial goal trajectory
Subscription
Billing & plans
Manage your LifeAlpha subscription and billing details
Pro Trial — 11 days remaining. Subscribe to Pro to keep unlimited QMC simulations, AI analyst, What If scenarios, Goal Planner, weekly email reports, and all premium features.
📈
Never lose track of your progress
Every simulation is remembered — your net worth, probability, and financial age build into a real history you can look back on, not a number that vanishes when you close the tab.
⚠️
Get warned before it's too late
If your goal probability quietly drops below 50% or 25%, you're emailed immediately with the exact fix — not left to discover it months later during a check-in you forgot to do.
🎯
See exactly what's working
The biggest-lever engine tells you the one change that moves your number most — in plain English, not a spreadsheet of variables to interpret yourself.
At $19/month that's $228/year — switching to annual saves you $7834% off
Free
For getting started
$0/month
10 simulations per day
Basic Monte Carlo engine
3 saved scenarios
5 budget projects
🔒 QMC Sobol engine
🔒 AI financial analyst
🔒 Weekly email reports
BEST VALUE
Pro
For serious wealth builders
$150/year
You save $78 every year
$12.50/month, billed annually as $150
Unlimited QMC simulations
Joe-Kuo Sobol QMC engine (2,048 paths)
AI financial analyst (Claude-powered)
What If scenarios (10 presets + custom)
Unlimited projects & goal planning
Weekly email reports (Resend)
Multi-currency (10 currencies)
Smart contextual spending alerts
Full CSV data export
Priority support
Cancel anytime · No long-term contract
Trend Intelligence Pro
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Everything included in Pro
Pro isn't a bigger feature list — it's the version of LifeAlpha that gets more useful the longer you stay. Here's everything that's included, in full, from day one.
Your LifeAlpha usage
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You've modelled $0 in financial scenarios.
Your data is safe — stored encrypted on Supabase with row-level security.
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Billing history
No charges yet — currently on the free trial period
Transparency
Methodology
Exactly how LifeAlpha calculates every number it shows you — the engine, the assumptions, and where each benchmark comes from
The simulation engine
LifeAlpha's probability numbers come from a Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation using a Joe–Kuo direction-number Sobol sequence — a low-discrepancy sampling method that fills the space of possible futures more evenly than standard random Monte Carlo, so the probability estimate converges faster and with less noise for the same number of simulated paths.
Simulated paths per run
2,048
Sobol quasi-random sequences
Sensitivity / goal sub-runs
512
reduced for speed — noted wherever used
Each path models your portfolio month-by-month across your full time horizon: monthly contributions grow with your income growth rate, returns are drawn from your risk profile's distribution below, a stochastic crash model can strike in any given month, and both inflation and a tax drag are applied before compounding into the next month.
Return & volatility assumptions by risk profile
These are the exact annualized assumptions LifeAlpha's engine uses for each risk profile — the same numbers used in every simulation, sensitivity test, and goal calculation, with no hidden adjustments.
Risk profile
Expected annual return
Annual volatility
Modelled crash severity
Conservative
≈4.0%
≈4.5%
25% drawdown
Moderate
≈6.8%
≈6.9%
38% drawdown
Aggressive
≈10.7%
≈10.4%
52% drawdown
A crash can occur in any month of any path with a small, evenly-distributed probability across your full horizon, scaled so its expected annual frequency is realistic — when it does, it applies the drawdown shown above to that month's return before compounding continues. This is a model of market risk, not a prediction of when a real crash will happen.
What's modelled in every simulation
Income growth
Your monthly income compounds at your specified annual growth rate for the full horizon.
Contribution variance
Monthly contributions vary randomly around your target to reflect real-world irregularity.
Annual bonus income
Modelled as an independent monthly-equivalent contribution with its own variance.
Behavioural bias
Reduces your effective monthly investment to model real-world impulse spending / lifestyle creep.
Inflation drag
Your specified annual inflation rate is subtracted from real returns every month.
Tax drag
Positive monthly returns are reduced by your specified effective tax rate before compounding.
Market crash risk
A stochastic drawdown event, sized by your risk profile, can occur in any month across the horizon.
Volatility clustering
Volatility smooths month-to-month rather than resetting instantly, closer to how real markets behave.
Health score composition
Your Health Score (0–100) is a weighted composite of five factors from your most recent simulation — not an independent metric, but a summary of the same numbers shown elsewhere on your dashboard:
Factor
Weight
Basis
Goal probability
35 pts
Your QMC probability of reaching your goal
Savings rate
25 pts
(Income − expenses) ÷ income, vs. a 100% target
Investment ratio
20 pts
Effective monthly investment ÷ income
Emergency fund coverage
12 pts
Months of expenses covered by savings, capped at 6 months = full marks
Behavioural discipline
8 pts
Inverse of your behavioural bias input
Financial Age — sources, dimension by dimension
Financial Age compares five parts of your financial position against benchmarks for your age bracket. We're specific here on purpose: one of these five dimensions comes from an authoritative government dataset, and four use general financial-planning guidelines. Both are useful — but they are not the same kind of number, and you should know which is which.
Dimension
Source
Type
Net-worth benchmarks by bracket, as used in LifeAlpha today:
Bracket
Median net worth (Fed SCF 2022)
20s (under 30)
$39,000
30s (30–39)
$135,300
40s (40–49)
$247,200
50s (50+)
$364,000
Source: Federal Reserve Board, "Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2019 to 2022," Survey of Consumer Finances, Table 2 (October 2023) — the Fed's own age brackets (under-35, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64) mapped to LifeAlpha's four brackets. federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm →
What LifeAlpha is — and isn't
LifeAlpha is a probabilistic modelling tool. It runs thousands of simulated futures based on the numbers and assumptions you provide, and reports how many of them reached your goal. It does not know your actual future returns, your actual life events, or anything about you beyond what you've entered. Every probability, projection, and score on this site is a simulation output, not a guarantee, and not personalised financial advice from a licensed professional.
If you're making a significant financial decision, we'd encourage using LifeAlpha's numbers as one input among several — alongside a conversation with a licensed, fee-only financial planner who can account for your full situation.
Last verified
—
Every figure on this page is checked against its source periodically. If a number here is ever out of date, let us know.
Account
Settings
Manage your profile, security, notification preferences and simulation defaults
Profile information
Used only to calculate your financial age benchmark. Never shared.
Please enter a valid age (16–90)
Security & password
Recommended: 12+ characters including uppercase, lowercase, numbers, and symbols.
Enter new password
Notification preferences
Weekly progress email
Comprehensive financial summary every Monday morning, sent via Resend API
Smart spending alerts
Notified when spending patterns are affecting your QMC goal trajectory
Goal milestone alerts
Celebrate when you hit 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of any planned goal
Market volatility alerts
Alert when conditions may significantly impact your QMC projections
Bill & subscription reminders
3-day warning before any project budget period resets
⚠️ "Goal at risk" alert (below 50%)
Emailed when your QMC probability drops below 50% — independent 48-hour cooldown
🚨 "Critical alert" (below 25%)
Emailed when your QMC probability drops below 25% — separate 48-hour cooldown
Recent alerts
The last 5 alerts triggered for your account, so you always know what changed.
No alerts triggered yet — your goal probability has stayed healthy.
Simulation defaults
Danger zone
Permanently delete your account and all associated data — simulations, projects, goals, billing history. This action is completely irreversible. Export your data before proceeding.